791
FXUS63 KGRR 260844
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
344 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow and blowing snow Monday and Wednesday; breezy

- Chance of freezing rain and snow late week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

- Light snow and blowing snow Monday and Wednesday; breezy

There continues to be a decent signal for breezy conditions
tonight and Monday as a series of short waves drop south across
northern Lower and tighten the pressure gradient. We don`t expect
much in the way of snowfall with this cold front as the main area
of energy aloft remains in Canada. Confidence is high that we`ll
see gusty winds develop tonight into Monday. ECMWF ensemble mean
shows wind gusts to 40 mph. This is corroborated by high EFI
values across the northern half of the cwa. The end result is that
we`re likely to see some blowing and drifting snow both from the 1
inch or so that will fall ahead of the front as well as from the
snowpack on the ground.

Overall, snow accumulations will be rather light...less than an
inch, except north of M-46 where accums will be around an inch.

Another clipper will bring the chance of light snow again
Wednesday. Given the track of the clipper across the Straits, snow
accums over the cwa will be light; much of it generated by the
short wave aloft.

- Chance of freezing rain and snow late week

Yet another system late in the week is showing signs of producing
some freeing rain Friday night and Saturday. Our best chances for
freezing rain occur when a southern stream system draws moisture
northward toward the Great Lakes, where it encounters cold air
near the surface feeding in on northeast winds from Canada. GFS
and ECMWF are showing that scenario and forecast soundings would
support some freezing rain. We`ll continue to monitor this system
and see how the models resolve it.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1117 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2025

The last of the snow showers associated with cold front pushing
through the region were located near KJXN. They will track east of
that site by 07z. Then VFR clouds will give way to a period of
MVFR as the cold air advection strengthens overnight. Those lower
clouds are forecast to linger into Sunday however in the
afternoon, a warm air advection patterns develops. That will
allow for some increase in cloud bases, rising to VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

A Gale Warning is in effect in the northern nearshore zones
beginning this evening and continuing through Monday evening. A
Gale Warning is in effect for the rest of the nearshore from
Monday morning through Monday evening. Outside of the Gale Warning
a Small Craft Advisory is in effect.

A cold front dropping south will tighten the pressure gradient
resulting in stronger winds tonight and Monday.

Wind and waves will remain hazardous to small craft.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for LMZ844>848.
     Gale Warning from 9 AM to 11 PM EST Monday for LMZ844>848.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ849.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 11 PM EST Monday for
     LMZ849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...MJS/Thomas
MARINE...04

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion