928
FXUS63 KGRR 022238
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
538 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry through Tuesday night

- Rain Wednesday into Thursday

- Showers and Thunderstorms Friday into Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Mainly dry through Tuesday night

Ridging at the surface lingers from tonight into Tuesday night
keeping the area mainly dry. We do have a surge in low level
moisture that arrives late tonight and on Tuesday, but we look to
stay largely dry in the GRR forecast area (from I-94 northward).
Can`t rule out a few showers down towards I-94 tomorrow but are
only carry a 20 pct chance for rain. Moisture is shallow and lift
is weak. A seasonably cool night with lows in the 20s followed by
a warmer day tomorrow with highs in the lower to middle 40s.

- Rain Wednesday into Thursday

Overall we are looking at a pattern change in this 7 day forecast
and it shows up in earnest from Wednesday into Thursday. Highs
will reach the 50s both days in most areas when normal highs are
around 40. Precipitation will be driven by a mid level shortwave
working east in a zonal flow which will be in the process of
becoming a deep southwest flow. Down at the surface a low will
make an approach to the area on Thursday moving along the
Michigan/Indiana line. Precipitation totals in this time frame may
reach a half inch across Southern Lower Michigan.

- Showers and Thunderstorms Friday into Saturday

The warmth surges in further during the Friday and Saturday time
frame ahead of a cold front. 850mb temperatures rise to around
+13C which will push high temperatures into the 60s. Highs will be
20 to 25 degrees F above normal and will be in the neighborhood of
record highs for this time of year. Periods of showers and
thunderstorms are expected Friday into Saturday given a surge of
moisture which will push PWATs to around 1.3 inches and surface
dew points to near 60F. MUCAPE values will reach at least 500-1000
j/kg so thunderstorms are expected. Additional rainfall will
likely push to around an inch in spots.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 538 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

VFR conditions expected through early Tuesday morning, with the
cloud deck thickening and lowering overnight as moisture streams
in from the south. Cigs lower to MVFR mid Tuesday morning for the
I-94 terminals and early Tuesday afternoon for the I-96 terminals.
By mid afternoon, fuel-alternate MVFR cigs are likely with a 10%
chance of IFR cigs. Once they arrive, MVFR cigs will persist
through the TAF period. Predominantly southeast winds tonight will
change to northwesterly Tuesday afternoon aob 10 knots.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...Thomas

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion